Chiefs-Jags Winner Likely Left Out of Playoffs

Football Betting Lines

12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In the end, will it really matter?

That existential question faces the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium, as the two AFC Wild Card hopefuls will seek a win and some substantial help elsewhere in the league in order to make their postseason dreams come to fruition.

Both 8-7 teams are likely to be peering at the out-of-town scoreboard as they do battle, since each will require simultaneous early-game losses from the Bengals against Pittsburgh and the Titans versus the New England Patriots.

If the Jaguars come out on top on Sunday, they will need a third 1pm Eastern game, the Jets/Raiders tussle at the Meadowlands, to break in favor of 2-13 Oakland.

Should the Chiefs prevail, they would also require a late-game loss for the homestanding Denver Broncos against 6-9 San Francisco.

So...who's ready to talk about offseason needs?

Jacksonville put itself in its current predicament by losing its two most recent games, with last week's 24-21 home loss to the Patriots coming seven days after a disheartening 24-17 loss in Tennessee. If the Jaguars fail to reach the postseason for the sixth time in the last seven years, they will also forego an opportunity to win a playoff game for the first time since 1999.

Speaking of no playoff wins since the 90's, Kansas City is on the brink of unlucky season number 13 without a postseason victory. The Chiefs haven't won a playoff game since 1993, which marks the league's third-longest current drought behind only the Bengals (1990) and Lions (1991). Kansas City last reached the postseason in 2003.

Herm Edwards' team gave itself a window of hope, albeit a slim one, with last Saturday's 20-9 win in Oakland. The Chiefs had previously hampered their chances during a three-game losing streak that included setbacks against the Browns (31-28 in overtime), Ravens (20-10), and Chargers (20-9).

Kansas City will be appearing at Arrowhead for the first time since the loss to Baltimore, which marked the franchise's first defeat in a December home game since 1996.

SERIES HISTORY

Jacksonville holds a 4-1 lead in its all-time series with Kansas City, including a 22-16 home victory when the teams last met, in Week 6 of the 2004 season. The Jaguars won the only matchup played between the teams at Arrowhead, a 23-16 triumph in 2002. Kansas City's only win against the Jags came in 2001, 30-26, on the road.

Edwards is 1-2 in his career against Jacksonville, with all of those matchups dating back to his tenure with the Jets (2001-05). The Jaguars' Jack Del Rio is 1-0 against the Chiefs, for whom he played in 1987-88, and is 1-1 head-to- head against Edwards. Del Rio and the Jags defeated Edwards' Jets, 26-20 in overtime, in Week 3 of last season.

JAGUARS OFFENSE VS. CHIEFS DEFENSE

Though much of the focus on Sunday will be on the Chiefs' Larry Johnson and his bid for the NFL rushing title, it is actually the Jaguars' running game that has a chance to carve out a more significant piece of history. With 105 rushing yards from rookie Maurice Jones-Drew (895 rushing yards, 42 receptions, 14 TD), he and Fred Taylor (1120 rushing yards, 5 TD, 22 receptions) will become the fourth running back tandem of all-time, and first since the Browns' Earnest Byner and Kevin Mack in 1985, to eclipse the 1,000- yard mark in the same season. Falcons running back Warrick Dunn and quarterback Michael Vick have also pulled off the feat in 2006. Jones-Drew drew a bit nearer to the four-digit mark last week, when he received a bulk of the rushing load in the absence of the injured Taylor, carrying 19 times for 131 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Patriots. The UCLA product also contributed six catches for 41 yards out of the backfield. Taylor (hamstring), who missed his first game of the year, is regarded as probable for Sunday. Jacksonville is second in the league in rushing offense (161.9 yards per game), behind only Atlanta.

One week after allowing the Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson to run wild for 199 yards, the Chiefs last week surrendered a career-high 90 yards on 19 carries to the Raiders' Justin Fargas. After being generally effective against the rush in the early stages of the season, Kansas City has slipped to 18th in NFL rushing defense (121 yards per game). The linebacking corps of Kawika Mitchell (101 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) in the middle and Derrick Johnson (70 tackles, 4.5 sacks) and Kendrell Bell (49 tackles, 1 sack) on the outside did make an impact against the Raiders, however. Mitchell had seven tackles to go along with a sack and a forced fumble; Johnson posted a team-high nine stops and a fumble recovery; and Bell notched nine tackles in the game. In the trenches, tackle James Reed (36 tackles, 1 sack) came up with three tackles and interior mate Ron Edwards (19 tackles, 2.5 sacks) provided a presence with his 320- pound frame.

Stating perhaps his final argument for his abilities as an NFL starting quarterback this week will be Jacksonville's David Garrard (1595 passing yards, 9 TD, 8 INT), who has been hot-and-cold since taking over for the injured Byron Leftwich (ankle) in late October. Garrard has a mediocre starting record (5-4) and passer rating (80.8) on the year, but the four ratings of 100 or better that the athletic signal-caller has produced are perhaps an indication of his potential. Garrard played well against the Patriots last week, completing 17-of-23 passes for 195 yards with a touchdown and a key fumble that he suffered while being sacked on Jacksonville's ill- fated final drive. Matt Jones (36 receptions, 4 TD) was Garrard's most effective receiver, hauling in four passes for 69 yards and a touchdown, while fellow wideouts Reggie Williams (46 receptions, 4 TD) and Ernest Wilford (34 receptions, 2 TD) were limited to two grabs each. Also finishing with two catches was tight end George Wrighster (37 receptions, 3 TD). The Jacksonville o-line has allowed 27 sacks on the year, which ranks them middle-of-the-NFL pack.

Playing the aerial-challenged Raiders allowed a Chiefs defense that had struggled to make plays in both the secondary and pass rush an opportunity to fill up the box score. Kansas City forced five turnovers versus Oakland, including four by quarterback Andrew Walter, and sacked Walter a total of four times. Rookie safety Jarrad Page (31 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) and end Jared Allen (73 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 1 INT) were but two of the team's defensive heroes, with Page turning in the first two-interception game of his NFL career and Allen notching a sack and his NFL-leading fifth and sixth fumble recoveries of the year. Allen and fellow end Tamba Hali (56 tackles, 7 sacks) are 1-2 on the Chiefs in sacks. Helping Page in the secondary was cornerback Ty Law (62 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack), who forced a pair of fumbles. Law and fellow corner Patrick Surtain (60 tackles, 1 INT) will match up with Jones and Williams on Sunday. Kansas City is 14th in the league against the pass (203.3 yards per game) as Week 17 commences.

CHIEFS OFFENSE VS. JAGUARS DEFENSE

Johnson (1651 rushing yards, 36 receptions, 16 TD) enters Week 17 trailing Tomlinson by 98 yards in his quest for the 2006 rushing title, and it is conceivable that Johnson could end up with the crown if San Diego chooses to rest Tomlinson in what could be a meaningless game against Arizona. What the two-time Pro Bowler has a clearer shot at is the NFL single-season record for most rushing attempts in a season. Johnson needs 28 carries this week to surpass the current mark of 410, set by the Falcons' Jamal Anderson in 1998. Johnson has logged 28 or more totes seven times this season, including last Saturday's 31-carry, 135-yard, one-touchdown win over the Raiders. If the Penn State product can amass his 11th 100-yard game of the year on Sunday, he would break his own year-old team record of 1,750 yards. Kansas City is eighth in NFL rushing offense (131.5 yards per game).

Getting to triple-digits will be a challenge for Johnson, who will face a high-quality Jacksonville front seven featuring massive tackles Marcus Stroud (20 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and John Henderson (49 tackles, 3.5 sacks) at its core. The Jaguars are third in the NFL in rushing defense (86 yards per game) and yards per carry allowed (3.4), and come off a week in which they allowed four New England running backs to combine for 86 yards on 20 carries. That total includes a key 27-yard touchdown run for Laurence Maroney in the fourth quarter, just the fifth run of 20 yards or longer against Jacksonville all season. Stroud and Henderson combined for seven tackles in the loss, and top run-stopping linebackers Clint Ingram (66 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Daryl Smith (83 tackles, 2 sacks) combined for nine more. Stroud (ankle) is listed as probable on this week's injury report.

The deficiency of the Kansas City passing game will have to be addressed in the offseason, as the three principle members of that group - 36-year-old Trent Green (1161 passing yards, 6 TD, 7 INT), 33-year-old wide receiver Eddie Kennison (47 receptions, 4 TD), and 30-year-old tight end Tony Gonzalez (71 receptions, 5 TD) - are all past their prime. Meanwhile, young linchpins of the attack like No. 2 receiver Samie Parker (39 receptions, 1 TD) and left tackle Jordan Black have not played consistently well, melding into a situation that has seen Kansas City rank 21st in the league in passing offense (185 yards per game). Green was 12-of-24 for 148 yards against the Raiders last week, including a six-yard touchdown pass to Kennison (his only catch of the night) and an interception. Gonzalez helped move the chains with five grabs for 67 yards, and Parker was the team's most productive wideout with three catches totaling 48 yards. The Kansas City line has allowed 38 sacks on the year, including two of Green last Saturday.

A Jacksonville secondary already depleted by a season-ending injury to starting strong safety Donovin Darius (leg) could take another hit this week, as No. 1 free safety Deon Grant (54 tackles, 2 INT) is considered doubtful with a hamstring injury suffered last week. Undrafted rookie free agent Jamaal Fudge (4 tackles) would make his first career start if Grant can't go. Locking up on Kennison and Parker will be cornerbacks Rashean Mathis (58 tackles, 7 INT) and Brian Williams (52 tackles, 1 INT), both of whom have played well for much of the 2006 season. Mathis, who was last week named to his first career Pro Bowl, had five tackles against the Patriots. The pass rush managed just one sack of Tom Brady last Sunday, that by end Paul Spicer (38 tackles, 3 sacks), and the lack of pressure enabled Brady to complete 28 passes to 11 different targets. End Bobby McCray (33 tackles, 9 sacks) continues to lead the Jaguars in sacks. Jacksonville is 11th in the league against the pass (190.2 yards per game), but is further down the chart in sacks (32).

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Chiefs have a little something to prove in this matchup, and that determination figures to go beyond whatever improbable maneuver it will take for the franchise to reach the postseason. Kansas City needs to take its late- season edge at Arrowhead back, has a running back it would like to see make one final run at an NFL rushing title, and wants to prove capable of beating a quality opponent after the recent losses to the Ravens and Chargers. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is a team that has shot itself in the foot in a multiple number of ways during its current two-game skid, and there is little reason to expect that to change in a hostile environment like that of Kansas City.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Chiefs 28, Jaguars 20