Lotta goals not enough for Sweden to advance

Soccer Betting Lines

09/18/2007 - Tianjin, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sweden came up short in its bid for a fifth consecutive appearance in the quarterfinals of the Women's World Cup, beating North Korea 2-1 on Tuesday, but failing to achieve the three-goal win that was necessary to advance.

Lotta Schelin was dangerous throughout the match for Sweden, and she put the team ahead after only four minutes. However, a long-range shot from Un Suk Ri in the 22nd minute pulled the teams level heading into halftime. Schelin added her second goal of the game in the 54th minute, but Sweden could not get any closer, allowing North Korea to proceed past the group stage for the first time in its three World Cup appearances.

The North Koreans will now play Group A winners Germany on Saturday, while the United States, who won Group B with a 1-0 win over Nigeria on Tuesday, will meet Group A runners-up England on Saturday.

Things got off to a great start for Sweden as the team took advantage of its first chance of the game.

Therese Sjogran did well on the right flank to shake free of her defender and carry the ball to the end line. The midfielder then pulled the ball back and lobbed a cross into the six-yard box. The ball floated over the head of the keeper and Schelin got inside her defender to head home the opening goal.

After such a great start, things slowed for Sweden over the remainder of the half. They failed to test keeper Myong Hui Jon and the Korean defense did well to deal with any long ball that Sweden attempted.

Korea hit back in the 22nd minute to level the score. Ri picked up the ball in midfield on the left and carried it toward goal. She cut into the middle of the field and fired a perfect shot from 35 yards out. The ball sailed over the head of keeper Hedvig Lindahl and into the upper right corner of the net.

The goal continued the strategy that Korea has implemented for this tournament of firing shots from distance and putting pressure on the keeper.

The second half started well for Sweden also, as they found themselves ahead nine minutes after the restart. Victoria Svensson slid a pass to Schelin, who was running toward goal. Schelin split two defenders to get into the box and knocked a shot toward the right corner. The keeper came off her line and got a hand to the shot, but it rolled across the line and Sweden had new hope.

The next five minutes saw Sweden continue to put the pressure on, forcing a Korean defender to clear the ball off the line after a Svensson effort.

Over the final 30 minutes, Korea sat back and played for counter attack chances, which allowed them to get a couple of good opportunities to equalize.

Un Gyong Ri got open at the penalty spot and took a cross with a good look at the net. However, she volleyed the ball well over the crossbar to keep Korea down a goal.

Sweden still needed two more goals, and Schelin was doing everything she could to get another. Schelin found Svensson inside the box with a pass, but as Svensson turned and fired a shot, a Korean defender was there to block it away.

It was a scene that would play out on a couple of other occasions over the final 15 minutes as Korea did well to cut down the space that Sweden had and did not allow the Scandinavian side to get room for a good shot.

Korea had two good chances to equalize in the last 15 minutes, with both coming on counter attacks. Kum Suk Ri had the first opportunity as she received a pass at the edge of the area and had a wide open shot at goal. She fired the ball high but Lindahl did well to tip the shot over the net.

The Swedish keeper was called upon once again with 10 minutes to play when Son Hui Kil was played into the box on the right and fired a shot toward the near post. Once again, Lindahl was up to the task and deflected the shot over the crossbar.

Unfortunately for Sweden, it saved its best game of the tournament for the end, when they had already put themselves in a hole. Sweden is a top team that belongs in the last eight but will now head home wondering what went wrong after advancing to the final in the 2003 Cup.

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MySportsbook.com: NFL draft - The NFC South


In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South.  Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC.  The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game.  For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft.  Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.

1. New Orleans Saints
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Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami

2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season.  With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round.  LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems.  If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.

Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU

3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season.  The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach.  The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub.  High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career.  With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson. 

Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season.  The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age.  It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot.  This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.

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It is never too early to start betting on the NFL. Log on to MySportsbook.com to checkout all of the NFL futures for the upcoming season.  On the clock: the NFC North

Odds to win the NFC South:
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Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2    

Odds to win the NFC:
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Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1

Odds to win the Super Bowl:
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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