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12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indianapolis Colts will have one final chance to build some sorely-needed momentum for the upcoming playoffs this Sunday, when the reeling AFC South champions conclude their regular season by hosting the Miami Dolphins.
It wasn't that long ago when the Colts were squarely in the driver's seat towards obtaining home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. That's now an impossibility, thanks to losses in four of the team's last six games, and the chances of Indianapolis receiving a bye for next week's Wild Card round have been greatly reduced as well because of that recent free-fall.
The Colts can still earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but only with a win over the Dolphins coupled with a Baltimore loss to Buffalo on Sunday. If Indianapolis falls to Miami and New England defeats Tennessee in its finale, the Colts would slip all the way to the fourth seed.
In reality, Indy doesn't have a whole lot of problems to fix as its heads into the postseason. Just one giant one.
While the Colts' high-scoring offense has played at an elite level all year long, a defense that has been helpless against opposing rushing attacks has been the root of the club's late-season collapse.
Indianapolis is surrendering an NFL-worst average of 174.5 rushing yards per game on the season and has yielded a pathetic 261.7 yards per contest on the ground during its three latest losses. In their most recent outing, the Colts allowed the normally non-threatening Ron Dayne to pile up a career-high 153 yards, a contributing factor to Houston's 27-24 upset victory last Sunday.
There will be no postseason appearance for the Dolphins for a fifth consecutive year, but they have at least shown a willingness to play the role of spoiler. Miami took the playoff-hopeful Jets to the wire on Christmas night before having its holiday ruined by a last-minute scoring drive that lifted New York to an exciting 13-10 win.
All of the Dolphins' points came in the fourth quarter with Cleo Lemon at the controls. The little-known quarterback replaced an ineffective Joey Harrington in the second half for the second straight week and completed 11-of-16 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown, a performance which earned Lemon his first career start under center on Sunday.
SERIES HISTORY
Miami owns a 44-22 advantage in its all-time regular season series against Indianapolis, but was a 23-17 home loser when the teams last met, in 2003. The Dolphins won the previous meeting, taking a 21-13 decision at the RCA Dome in 2002. The Dolphins are 5-0 in Indianapolis since suffering a 41-0 loss there during the 1997 campaign.
In addition to the regular season series, the teams have met twice in postseason play. Miami was a 23-17 overtime winner in a 2000 AFC First-Round Playoff at Dolphin Stadium (the franchise's most recent postseason victory), and also defeated the Baltimore Colts (21-0) in the 1971 AFC Championship.
Colts head coach Tony Dungy is 3-1 in his career against the Dolphins, including 1-1 since coming to Indianapolis in 2002. Saban will be meeting both Dungy and the Colts for the first time as a head coach.
DOLPHINS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE
Miami has averaged a mere 15.9 points per game for the season, with the team's year-long instability at the quarterback position a primary culprit for that subpar output. Harrington (2,236 passing yards, 12 TD, 15 INT) has been downright brutal over the last two weeks. The former first-round pick mustered just 20 yards on 5-of-17 passing and was picked off twice before being replaced by Lemon in the Dolphins' 21-0 loss to Buffalo on December 17, then failed to move the offense during the first half of Monday's game. Lemon (202 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) clearly provided a spark against the Jets, displaying both a strong arm and good mobility in his relief role, but it remains to be seen how the raw 27-year-old will fare against a defense that will game-plan for him. Whoever is under center will have a quality group of receivers to work with, although Marty Booker (51 receptions, 701 yards, 6 TD), Miami's best big-play threat, has been hampered by an ankle sprain which caused him to miss the Jets game. Wideouts Chris Chambers (56 receptions, 638 yards, 4 TD) and Wes Welker (64 receptions, 664 yards, 1 TD) and athletic tight end Randy McMichael (58 receptions, 585 yards, 2 TD) ensure the Dolphins are in good hands even if Booker is unable to play, however. A bigger concern for Saban is an offensive line that has given up 39 sacks and may have its hands full with the Colts' speed rushers.
Dungy's defense emphasizes speed over size, a philosophy which has certainly had a negative impact versus the run but also gives Indianapolis one of the league's top units against the pass. The Colts have allowed the second-fewest passing yards (156.3 ypg) in the NFL as well as a respectable total of 15 touchdowns through the air. The defense is at its best when ends Dwight Freeney (27 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) and Robert Mathis (64 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) are generating constant pressure the way the duo mercilessly harassed Cincinnati's Carson Palmer two weeks ago. Indy failed to record a sack against Houston, however, which enabled the inconsistent David Carr to complete nearly 70 percent of his throws and not turn the ball over. Cornerbacks Nick Harper (71 tackles, 3 INT) and Jason David (50 tackles, 2 INT) aren't big, but each is adept at keeping the play in front of him.
The Dolphins rank just 26th in rushing yards (101.5 ypg), a surprising figure considering Saban usually places a strong emphasis on the ground game and Miami possesses an outstanding young back in Ronnie Brown (893 rushing yards, 5 TD). The former Auburn star returned from a three-game absence due to a broken hand and showed no ill effects from the layoff, slicing through the Jets for 110 yards on 18 carries last Monday. Bruising backup Sammy Morris (381 rushing yards, 1 TD) did a capable job filling in for Brown, and is averaging a solid 4.2 yards per carry on the season.
Brown could be in line for another big day if Indianapolis can't find a cure for its well-documented inability to contain opposing backs. A return to the field by standout free safety Bob Sanders (27 tackles, 1 INT) would definitely help matters. The 2005 All-Pro has played in only four games this season because of a lingering knee injury, but the Colts are hopeful he will be available on Sunday. Safeties Marlin Jackson (79 tackles, 1 INT) and Antoine Bethea (80 tackles, 1 INT) were far too busy in the Houston game, as the pair combined for 23 tackles while Dayne continually ran through the front seven. The star of an otherwise nondescript group of linebackers is weakside starter Cato June (2 INT, 0.5 sacks), who leads the club with 131 tackles and is also strong against the pass.
COLTS OFFENSE VS. DOLPHINS DEFENSE
Indianapolis has far fewer worries on the offensive end, where the Colts rank second in passing yards (268.4 ypg) and third in both total yards (378.1 ypg) and points scored (26.7 ppg). It's scary to think where Indy would be without quarterback Peyton Manning (4,115 passing yards, 29 TD, 9 INT), who set an NFL record by eclipsing the 4,000-yard mark for the seventh time in his brilliant career during last week's loss. Manning has also thrown seven touchdown passes over the last two games, five of which have gone to super veteran Marvin Harrison (90 receptions, 1,292 yards, 11 TD). The eight-time Pro Bowler Harrison had 112 yards on eight grabs against Houston, the third time in four weeks he has gone past the century mark. Reggie Wayne (80 receptions, 1,240 yards, 9 TD) is just as dangerous on the other side, and there's a possibility Manning could get another weapon back in tight end Dallas Clark (26 receptions, 311 yards, 4 TD), who is close to returning from a knee sprain that's kept him out of the last four contests. A rock-solid line anchored by Pro Bowl honorees Jeff Saturday and Tarik Glenn has surrendered a league-low 15 sacks.
The Dolphins will need to apply heat on Manning to keep Indy's high-powered offense in check. Luckily for Miami, rushing the passer is an area of strength. Jason Taylor (56 tackles, 13.5 sacks, 9 forced fumbles) has been the league's most dominant defensive end this season, and the leader of a defense that stands third overall with 47 sacks. Tackle Vonnie Holliday (65 tackles, 7 sacks) has also enjoyed an excellent campaign, while veteran Kevin Carter (42 tackles, 5.5 sacks) has been a force opposite Taylor as well. A sturdy secondary has contributed to Miami's No. 4 ranking in passing yards allowed (181.7 ypg), but the unit figures to be shorthanded on Sunday. Starting cornerback Andre' Goodman (41 tackles, 9 PBU) hurt his left shoulder versus the Jets and is unlikely to play, while reserve Eddie Jackson suffered a season-ending knee injury on special teams during the game.
Indianapolis has rotated running backs Joseph Addai (1,017 rushing yards, 7 TD) and Dominic Rhodes (599 rushing yards, 5 TD) throughout the season, but the younger and stronger Addai has clearly established himself as the No. 1 guy during the latter part of the year. The 23-year-old became the first rookie in 2006 to surpass the 1,000-yard barrier with his 15-carry, 100-yard effort against the Texans, and has averaged a terrific five yards per rush behind the Colts' sturdy front wall. Addai has added 296 receiving yards on 37 grabs, while Rhodes (36 receptions, 251 yards) is a fine pass-catcher as well. For the year, Indianapolis owns the NFL's 18th-rated rushing offense (109.7 ypg).
Miami counters the Colts' effective ground attack with a defense that has surrendered just 100.1 rushing yards per game (seventh overall) and hasn't let an opposing back reach the century mark since Green Bay's Ahman Green did so back in Week 7. Holliday and massive tackle Keith Traylor (35 tackles, 4 sacks) often control the line of scrimmage, and allow relentless middle linebacker Zach Thomas (153 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) to roam free and pile up stops. Traylor injured his knee in the Jets game, however, and may have to sit out the finale. Carter is an excellent run-stuffer as well, while Yeremiah Bell (62 tackles, 2 sacks, 13 PBU) has emerged as an impact player since taking over at strong safety in midseason.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Teams have discovered in the season's second half that the formula for success against the Colts consists of running the ball down their throats. Miami will no doubt stick to that game plan, which coupled with a terrific defense gives the Dolphins a very reasonable chance of coming out on top. Still, it's hard to go against the team that has a whole lot more on the line, especially when that team has Peyton Manning and is 7-0 at home this season. The Dolphins will make Indianapolis earn it, but Miami's deficiencies on offense prevent the upset from taking place.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Colts 17, Dolphins 16
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
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With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
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MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
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