Stars shoot for rare win in Buffalo

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03/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After losing its first three games after the Winter Olympics, Dallas is coming off a victory that could very well turn its luck around. Now all it has to do is pick up its first victory at Buffalo in over 12 years.

The Stars shoot for that rare victory tonight at HSBC Arena versus the Sabres, who are aiming to win three in a row overall for the first time in over two months.

Dallas was outscored 17-5 over its post-Olympic slide and was facing the highest-scoring team in the league on Monday in Washington. Things didn't look good when the Stars found themselves down 2-0 after two periods and outshot 42-16.

However, the Stars scored three times in the third frame, and though they allowed the game-tying goal late in the third they still escaped with a 4-3 shootout win over the Capitals.

Brad Richards and Trevor Daley scored on the power play early in the third before James Neal gave Dallas its first lead in the frame. Though Marty Turco surrendered the game-tying goal to Alex Ovechkin with 3:16 left in the third, he ended with a career-high 49 saves and stopped four-of-five skaters in the shootout.

Richards and Loui Eriksson scored in the shootout, with Eriksson getting the game-winner in the fifth round.

"I don't care if I see one shot cause it's all about the win", said Turco. "We made some great plays tonight to have a chance in the third period and the guys came through, especially on the power play. This was a big win for us and now we can use it to turn things around."

Dallas, which won for the third time in its last four road games and ends a three-game swing tonight, come into this game five points back of a playoff spot in the Western Conference.

If the Stars want to close that gap, they will need to earn their first victory in western New York since October 7, 1997. They have four losses and a tie in four trips there since.

The Stars have also lost four straight overall to the Sabres, including a 5-4 shootout setback in Dallas last season. Turco made 31 saves for Dallas, which hasn't beaten Buffalo since March 31, 2003.

Ryan Miller posted 21 saves in that victory and he has guided the Sabres to consecutive overtime victories. That has Buffalo in position to win three in a row for the first time since a six-game burst from December 27-January 8.

Miller is 2-1-0 with a 1.64 goals-against average in three starts since leading the U.S. to a silver medal in the Winter Olympics. He made 27 saves in a 3-2 win over Philadelphia on Friday, then stopped 35 shots two days later in a 2-1 triumph versus the New York Rangers.

Adam Mair scored in regulation and Patrick Kaleta had the game-winner 2:22 into OT, upping his career-high goal total to nine. The victory snapped an eight-game road losing streak (0-6-2) and was the club's second straight since a 1-6-2 stretch.

"It was a good game," Kaleta said. "I thought we skated hard and had some desperation."

The Sabres are tied with the Senators for first place in the Northeast Division thanks to their recent struggles.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.