Top-25 battle pits Tar Heels against Wildcats

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2007 - Tucson, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A rare non-conference treat late in the season takes place in the desert this afternoon, as the fourth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels come calling on the 17th-ranked Arizona Wildcats in Tucson.

The Tar Heels have won three straight games and improved to 5-1 in ACC play with Wednesday's 88-60 rout of Wake Forest in Winston-Salem. Roy Williams' squad has lost just twice this season, falling to Gonzaga in late November and then again at Virginia Tech on January 13th.

The Wildcats on the other hand struggled in recent weeks, dropping three consecutive tilts before responding in a big way against rival Arizona State on Wednesday, 71-47. The lopsided win moved Lute Olson's team to 14-5 overall, but only 5-4 in Pac-10 play.

This is the seventh all-time meeting between these two prolific programs, with the series all knotted up at three games apiece. Last season North Carolina posted an 86-69 win in Chapel Hill, the first meeting in this series that did not occur at a neutral site.

The Tar Heels are an extremely young team, but the scary thing is, it hasn't mattered in 2006-07, as the team ranks second in the nation in scoring (87.6 ppg), getting it done on 50.4 percent shooting. Four of the top five scorers are either freshman or sophomores, so the future is certainly bright in Chapel Hill. All-American Tyler Hansbrough has definitely not suffered a sophomore slump, as he leads the team in both scoring (18.5 ppg) and rebounding (8.1 rpg). He is followed in both categories by one of the nation's premier newcomers in freshman Brandan Wright (15.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg). The 6-9 phenom is shooting a ridiculous .646 from the floor and leads the team with 34 blocked shots. Other freshmen of note include guard Wayne Ellington (12.4 ppg, .404 from three-point range) and Ty Lawson (9.0 ppg, team-high 101 assists). In the rout of Wake Forest, Ellington led five Tar Heels in double figures with 18 points. Lawson poured in 15 points, Hansbrough just missed a double-double with 13 points and nine rebounds, while Wright and Danny Green chipped in 12 points apiece.

Arizona has the personnel to win a shootout with any team in the nation and that includes the explosive Tar Heels. The Wildcats are converting just about half of their shots thus far (.499), resulting in a healthy scoring average of 83.4 ppg. All five starters are averaging double figures, but the strength lies in the frontcourt, with a trio of athletic forwards. Marcus Williams leads the team with 18.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per. He is followed closely by Ivan Radenovic (16.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and Chase Budinger (15.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg). The backcourt is no slouch either, with guards Mustafa Shakur (14.2 ppg, 7.6 apg) and Jawann McClellan (11.7 ppg) making their presence felt. Despite not having Williams in the lineup last time out (one-game suspension), Arizona was able to make light work of the Sun Devils. The team shot 50 percent from the floor overall, as four of the team's five starters notched double digits. Budinger led the charge with a huge double-double, finishing with 21 points and 10 rebounds. McClellan added 14 points, followed by Jordan Hill, who filled in admirably for Williams, netting 12 points and grabbing nine boards. Radenovic finished things off with 11 points.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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What Is the Point Spread?

What are Sports Betting Point Spreads?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read Point Spreads

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.